BY:

MUHAMMAD AIDIQ SUFI BIN MUHAMMAD RIDHWAN PANG

19 Mei 2016(Australia Date)

1.Introduction

The European Union was formed with many expectations. Despite closeness and
similarities, the various nations of the European continent fought bitter wars for thousands of
years within themselves. After the devastating World War II, finally, everyone saw the light
and decided to give a chance to a peaceful coexistence. However, the EU’s path has not been
smooth. Many critical economic and political problems have emerged throughout the last
decade, thus raising questions about its credibility. In this essay, I argue that the EU has
failed, given the controversial issues that arise at present; namely the viability of the Euro as
a common currency, the Brexit, and the migrant crisis from the Middle East.

2.The Euro as a Common Currency

I will first explicate the history of this common currency before demonstrating how it
could lead to a chained financial crisis in the Eurozone countries. Prior to World War II
(WWII), doing trade across borders was difficult. Countries were using different currencies
and they had to pay a certain tariff fee too. This eventually stifled the economic growth. After
WWII had ended, the situation among the European countries was so dire that they had to
call for an agreement to quickly patch-up their economy. They began to remove the trade
barriers like the steel and coal tariff so that the materials could be traded without much
trouble. In times, this gave them an idea to build a unified Europe, a union across the
continent that could work together to lower the trade cost and improve the development of
their countries (Cannon 2015). Consequently, the Maastricht Treaty that involved 27 of the
European Countries is signed on February 7, 1992. However, the feasibility of using different
currencies is questionable, as exchange fees has been debated to cause economic issue among
them (Chawla 2013). Therefore, on January 1, 1999, the Euro is introduced and is opted in
most of the European countries.

The European Central Bank (ECB) then forms new rules and monetary policy that
need to be followed by these Euro Area countries. Nonetheless, they still have the freedom to
construct their own fiscal policy (Elliott 2015). This is considered problematic as monetary
policy only control the flow of the money supply, while fiscal policy is the one that
determines how much they could spend based on the collected taxes. If they decide to spend
more than they could, this would then produce a deficit in spending. This usually happens
through borrowing processes.

Previously, a country with a small economy like Greece could only borrow a small
amount of money due to a high interest rate incurred on them. With the establishment of the
European Union and shared monetary policy, they are now able to borrow as much money as
Germany (Cannon 2015). ECB also believes that if a certain country could not repay its
loans, a country with a bigger economy like Germany would step in to help. This has
encourage countries to borrow more money than they could ever repay in order to escalate
the economic and developmental growth in their economy. Countries start to alter their fiscal
policy in accordance to their goals (Elliott 2015). They would not worry much because there will always another countries that could back them up. With that, their economy is now
tightly intertwined and their fate has also collectively tied.

Hence, a collapse in the US housing in 2000 has spurred credit crisis across the globe,
thus bringing borrowing to a halt (Arestis et al. 2010). Countries that involved with deficit
spending like Greece, Cyprus, and Ireland start to malfunction, as they could not borrow any
more money to satisfy the new jobs and benefits that they created (Alberto, Ardagna, and
Galasso 2011) (Lavdas et al. 2013). They start to seek help from countries that have a bigger
and stable economy like German (Cannon 2015). However, German necessitates a strict
Austerity measures to be agreed upon before it bails out the debtor countries. This is not an
easy decision as Austerity means that the governments need to cut off their spending and
reduce the allowance for their citizens. People may lose their jobs and this would decrease the
standard of living of the people. Although this method would help to reduce the accumulated
debts, a riot could possibly takes place among the citizens (Duval and Elmeskov 2005: 438).
Consequently, either they accept or not this measure, things would still worsen. Therefore, it
is arguable that the European Union has failed, as the Euro crisis has called for a serious
economics structural overhaul (Villaverde 2013: 66).

3.Brexit

In relations with the previous point, I believe that Brexit has something to do with the
financial crisis that happens in Europe. Although known to all that the possible exit of Britain
from the EU is actually one of the Prime Minister Cameron’s manifestos in gaining votes on
2012, it cannot be denied that the crisis has also pushed this idea forward.

Brexit is probably the biggest threat to the EU right now as the UK is one of the most
powerful nations and the major economies running the EU (Portes 2015). In addition, it plays
a major role in influencing the global economy. I will first clarify the pros and cons of Brexit
before giving a judgment either the EU has failed at this point or not.

On the positive side, Brexit may actually ease the decision-making process within the
EU and hasten the political reform. This is because the UK is known to throw around its
weight and elongate discussions with its reservations in most important topics (Witney 2015).
Brexit will also help the rest of the Union to be more efficient in passing resolutions,
especially on the current financial crisis (Schulz 2016: 98). On top of that, the UK has
constantly caused severe disagreements and delays in controversial topics like taxation and
social security (Buiter, Rahbahri, and Schulz 2016).

Many other countries have maintained cordial relations with the EU without
becoming full members. For example, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are a part of the
European Economic Area (EEA), despite of its non-member states’ status. They benefit each
other by providing the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital within the
internal market of the EU (Koutrakos 2006: 385). Similarly, Switzerland is not a member, but
it is a part of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) agreement that helps to commence
economies with strong per capita purchasing power. This means that Brexit does not reflect
the country’s decision to cut off any trading between them. Besides, any disagreement would not necessarily give bad impacts. To put into context, even the UK is not using Euro, they
still top the economy on 2014. As a proof, the EU has been able to generate a nominal GDP
of €14.3 trillion based on International Monetary Fund (Bryan 2015). Simply put, it has to be
seen what kind of relationship and agreements the UK opts for post its exit to get a clear view
of the positive consequences (Saunders 2016: 237).

Nonetheless, there is a negative side of Brexit that may cause several disputes. First of
all, it may cause a disturbance in term of the balance of power within the union. The EU itself
has started to part ways due to the ideology differences in dealing with the economy crisis. At
this moment, they need to stick together to make EU’s reformation possible. However, Brexit
would slow down and weaken the pro-reform group in the EU as they would lose one of their
most powerful members in the economy who supports it. This will tilt the balance of power
towards the EU countries that oppose the reformation. Secondly, with the exit of one of the
richest nations, there will be fewer countries remaining to bail out countries that are still in
the sovereign debt crisis (Sinn and Werner 2014). Thirdly, Brexit will be a telling blow to the
morale of the EU. It will encourage others who are considering an exit too. Consequently, it
can be expected to produce a chain reaction leading to many more exits. Fourthly, this will
also encourage separatist movements such as the Basque region in Spain or Corsica in
France. In addition, such opinions are also heard in the Netherlands (Alberto, Ardagna, and
Galasso 2011). Overall, we can see that Brexit may give both good and bad aftermath,
however, it could be clearly seen that the EU has failed, as it is powerless and is in no place
in controlling this issue.

4.Migrant Crisis

The migrant crisis is not exactly the EU’s fault, but nevertheless, it cannot avoid it.
The primary problem of the migrant crisis is the huge numbers of refugees that are in need of
settlement at once. They are coming in millions from the Middle East countries like Syria,
Afghanistan, Iraq and Eritrea, and this may affect the demographic of the EU nations
(Cockburn 2015). Contextually, the effect would be worse on smaller countries in the Eastern
Europe because the crisis will put a significant economic pressure on a region that is already
going through a downturn (Richter 2016).

First of all, this will increase social spending for the nations as they seek to provide
basic facilities and set up a good example in front of the world (Saunders 2016: 112). In
addition, the issue of ethical dimensions is raised up as the refugees are facing unimaginable
atrocity and devastation in their own homeland. Besides, the picture of a dead body of a boy
washed ashore has also heated up the issue (Smith 2015). The EU tries to extend their helping
hands at the border in accordance to meet their moral standards, but it is deemed to be
unsuccessful. This is due to the discontent of many native inhabitants in impoverished
countries like Greece on the employment factor (Marans 2016). Besides, countries that are
also tied up with the Austerity measure stated earlier will have to be watchful on their
spending. Thus, this help may significantly stress the local economies that are already
struggling to cope with the economic slowdown. In addition, internal strife and law and order
problems are rising in many such countries (Zimmermann 2016). Influx of refugees in high numbers will also alter the job markets as skilled refugees will compete with the locals for
jobs resulting in the increase of the rate of unemployment.

However, this crisis is not without positive outcomes. To begin with, the refugees can
provide extra labour in the markets that suffers from labour shortage. They can also take up
low-end menial jobs that are otherwise not taken up by more privileged Europeans.
Furthermore, considering their huge numbers, they also represent a new market that will
increase the demand, at least for certain products. In Oberhausen, Germany, 21% of asylum
seekers on 2015, that is nearly 3000 refugees, have settled down there without much trouble
(Johnson and Bräuer 2016). So, if they are integrated properly, they can help enhance the
demand within the Eurozone economies.

Nevertheless, the EU starts to close their borders and decides to send back the
refugees that illegally reside on Greece Island by making an agreement with Turkey (Rankin
2016). In return, the dialogues on Turkey’s membership in EU will be re-negotiated. Both
IGOs and NGOs protest this action as it undermines Europe’s human rights and
responsibilities. The UNHCR and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have all
withdrawn their support for the EU out of concern for the conditions and rights violations that
may surface. If more organizations pull out from this relief’s support, the EU will start to lose
its legitimacy and resources (Colett 2016). If the EU were to gain their trust again, it will take
some time for The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) and the European Court of
Human Rights (ECtHR) to endorse either the action is lawful or not. In that, this migrant
crisis undoubtedly questions the credibility of EU to provide humanitarian support towards
the refugees without causing more complications.

5.Conclusion

In conclusion, given the controversial issues of the migrant crisis, the Brexit, and the
Euro as a common currency, it can be argued that EU has substantially failed in maintaining
its credibility. Although the EU has provided a safety net at times, especially to it smaller
members on the Eastern Europe, its existence has not much stabilized the situations. In this
case, the EU may have survived the economy crisis due to the support of the EU countries
with a bigger economy like Germany and the UK, but it does need stronger unification and
some serious strategic rethinking if it is to restore its subsistence and credibility as an
international organization.

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BY:

MUHAMMAD AIDIQ SUFI BIN MUHAMMAD RIDHWAN PANG

4 JUNE 2016 (AUSTRALIA DATE)

1.INTRODUCTION

Recently, the world has been traumatized with the current Syrian refugee crisis and
this has called for an immediate response from close countries. The EU, for instance, has
taken many measures to help the refugees like funding €5 billion for relief and humanitarian
supports, as well as granting asylum status to them (Europa 2016). However, this is not
without drawbacks. Smaller countries like Hungary and Greece start to feel the pressure in
having a high influx of refugees that seek for shelter and aids at once. Although Hungary
government deems to be capable of accepting more migrants from Italy and Greece, it cannot
be denied that it had closed its border with Croatia in October 2015 (BBC 2016). Eventually,
this questions the idea of borderless Europe and the credibility of the EU. In that, Turkey sees
this as a good chance to step in and contextually hasten the accession in getting the EU’s
membership.

In the first part of this essay, I will explain the problems between the EU and Turkey
that subsist, specifically, in regards of their democratic nature, economic stability, and
culture. Then, I will relate the Syrian refugee crisis in relations to both countries. Lastly, I
will explicate and justify their actions through the EU theorizing; namely classical
international relations theories, comparative politics views, and normative perspective.


2.THE PROBLEMS BETWEEN THE EU AND TURKEY


Historically, the EU and Turkey have been a good partner ever since the World War
II ended. For instance, Turkey is an integral participant in Europe’s post-1945
institutionalization and even acts as one of the founding members of the Council of Europe in
1949 (Müftüler, Meltem, and Stivachtis 2008). However, Turkey has not been able to be a
part of the EU even in present time. Why?

First of all, this goes back to the democratic nature of Turkey. In order to be a part of
the EU, Turkey must be a democratic country. However, this is not what Turkey has been
practicing. Turkey is a secular parliamentary representative democratic republic. Thus, the
system adapts two leaders in governing the country that is Prime Minister and the President.
Prime Minister acts as the head of the government while the President acts as the head of
state. This leads to the separation and imbalance of power as the President is given more
freedom to execute his rules without a need to explain himself (Christensen, Joseph and
Wallace 2016).

Contextually, the EU requires a country to also be politically stable. This is
not a plus point for Turkey as corruptions or clashes in opinions of either leader would easily
collapse the system. For example, when President Erdogan asks Ahmet Davutoglu, the
former Prime Minister to step down from his title due to his desire to press for more
executive power (Kenyon 2016). Why has he done that? This actually relates to the recent
corruption of Erdogan that tries to close down his fraud involving billions of money
(Vatandaş 2016).

In order to sustain his supremacy, he has to shut any possible doors that
could lead to his downfall by getting hold of the whole state. This political instability has
clearly concerned the EU in processing the accession of Turkey.
Secondly, the EU demands a country with a functioning economy and to be able
competing within the EU’s single market. Turkey is known for having a major budget deficit
in its account and also for having a history of a heavy 70% inflation (Dorsey 1998). Although
Erdogan and his party do help in halving the deficit and making the inflation to be in a single
digit, it cannot be denied that Erdogan has also violated the human rights constituent by
attacking the group of the minority (Ant, Hacaoglu and Kozok 2016).

In addition, despite its latest growth, it is important to keep in mind that Turkey remains to be an underdeveloped country in economic terms. Based on the World Development Indicators, the country’s gross domestic product per capita is currently at 10,515 US dollars at 2014, that is less than half the European Union’s average (Worldbank 2015). On top of that, the EU’s citizens believe that
due to the large population in Turkey that is almost equal to the total population of ten
countries that just joined the EU in May 2004, the accession would change the provision of
employment and workforce accordingly (Christiane, Rochtus and Mels 2008: 73).

That implies that a foe of poor newcomers would head toward the western part, joining the
approximated ten million Turks that already lives in the European Union. It is also worth
noting that even though Turkey weathered the financial crisis better, the country has terribly
failed to push via necessary reforms, and there is a rapid fall in economic growth as the
country experienced rises in the unemployment rate of 10.3% based on the Turkish Statistics
Institute in September 2015 (Hürriyet 2015). Therefore, it would be problematic for the
European Union if it allows the entry of a country with an unstable economy.

Lastly, the differences in culture of both countries situate them in obstinate
relations. In term of geographic location, over ninety percent of the Turkey’s territory is in
Asia. In that, there are other nearby countries like Iraq, Iran, and Syria, in which the EU does
not favor to share their border with, as to prevent terrorism from spreading in (Civilization
2012). Besides, Turkey is too large to be absorbed by the European Union. The country has a
population forecasted to reach eighty million by 2040, hence, it may end up being the
dominant European Union’s member (Christiane, Rochtus and Mels 2008: 74). This is bad
for the EU as Turkey, though a secular country, over 98% of the citizens are Muslims
(Religion 1995). The EU has been practicing Christianity throughout their history until the
religion is almost made official by the EU. There would be a clash in values if the people are
not integrated properly. On the other hand, the EU looks up for its countries to protect human
rights, minority groups, and the freedom of speech.

Apparently, Turkey has violated the respects for human rights and the protection for the minority groups. They argue that the Kurdish is not a minority group due to its high number and had attacked them occasionally for alleged treachery acts against the government. Alongside with that, Turkey has opposed the EU’s international law that is the freedom of speech. Jan Boermermann, a German
comedian had been caught for making fun of Erdogan through a poem and German
prosecutors had to open a preliminary probe against him (Smale 2016). Supposedly, the
Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights would protect the freedom of
expression, but given the refugee crisis, even Angela Merkel, a German chancellor is keen to
appease Erdogan than to defend the right (Charlton 2016). Thus, it can be said that the
inclusion of Turkey may scrap the tradition of European countries, and this would not be
favorable, especially by the citizens.


3.SYRIAN REFUGEE CRISIS IN RELATIONS WITH THE EU MEMBERSHIP FOR
TURKEY

Generally, the refugee crisis is the only latest chapter in the complicated relationship
between Turkey and the European Union (Blumi and Isa 2013). So, what does the refugee
crisis has anything to do with them? Many things. In fact, the crisis marks the turning table in
the game created by the EU. Previously, the EU has put forth many requirements for Turkey
to obey as the membership is at stake. Now, Turkey is the one in the position to demand
things. This is mainly due to the EU’s desperation in solving the worst refugee crisis since
World War II. Therefore, even if Turkey has not yet completed the EU’s membership
requests, they have started to discuss the deal to solve this issue on March 18, 2016
(Consilium 2016). In return, Turkey demands more than six billion euros to support the
refugee, Visa-free European travel for Turks, and a faster path for the EU’s membership
(Humeyra and Baczynska 2016).

However, based on International Amnesty Report, Turkey has illegally forced the
return of refugees to Syria (Dalhuisen 2016). Groups of around 100 Syrian Refugees are
expelled daily, and this expulsion is openly done at the border of the country and Syria. This
returns eventually exposes the fatal flaws of the EU-Turkey deal. In addition, this action is
against International Law and the EU obligations. If they accept the deal, it is as if the EU
decides to ignore their integrity that they have been holding onto until now. Besides, Greek
judges have also ruled that Turkey is unsafe for the refugees (Sonawane 2016).

For the visa-free travel permit, it would not be a problem for the EU to allow it if
Turkey had followed all listed 72 conditions set by them. However, Turkey only does 65 of
them, and start to threaten the EU that they will pull off from the deal if they do not agree
with it by June (France 2016). This has heated the debate in the EU’s parliament that Turkey
might have manipulated the event for their personal gains and does not really plan or
intention to help the refugees.

Contextually, this also affects the accession negotiation for the membership given
how Turkey acts towards the EU. However, political decisions are about supporting a bad
decision so as to avoid even a worse one. Basically, this is the case when the EU starts to
really consider the accession of Turkey despite its flaws and shortcomings in order to deal
with the crisis (Gender 2013). Turkey is giving a chance to the European Union that is the
potential take on the 8th summit in Brussels, where the European Union’s head of government
and states met with the Turkish prime minister to find a solution in regard to the refugee
problem (Rankin and Oltermann 2016). In case the Turkish prime minister had not presented
his proposal on the table, then the only result would have been the Balkan route remained
locked down and the European policy decreased to nothing better than national decisions’
series (International 2014).

The initiative by the Turkish prime minister now provides the
European Union with the last opportunity to find a common line. Essentially, the prime
minister’s idea entails two steps. First of all, is to secure the European Union’s external
borders in the Aegean, with migrants who regularly cross to Greece being taken back to
Turkey. Secondly, the member states of the European Union to create legal routes to the EU
by accepting refugees from Syria who are registered in Turkey (Gries, Tobias and,
Alleweldt).


4.EU THEORIZING: CLASSIC INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORIES,
COMPARATIVE POLITICS VIEW, AND NORMATIVE PERSPECTIVE.


In classical international relations theories, neo-functionalist defines the refugee crisis
in Syria as a stepping stone for Turkey to finally take advantage of the EU. It is undeniable
that the EU has been playing games with Turkey and tries to delay the inclusion of it. For
example, when the EU asks Turkey to follow the Copenhagen criteria in term of economy
(Kanli 2016). Basically, Turkey needs to be capable competing within the EU’s single market
and to have a functioning economy. However, this condition is left vague so the EU could
always avoid the accession of Turkey in getting the membership (Belke 2004: 288). To put
into context, the crisis would also help in solving the problem of high influx of refugees at
one time in the European countries. Given the fact that this is the biggest asylum crisis since
World War II, it made EU’s citizens unprepared to face the large number of Turkey’s
population and the disparity of its culture, thus making the EU-Turkey refugee agreement a
good deal for them. In addition, it is important to note that the EU’s directives have a direct
impact on the European Union citizens as the EU law comes first over any domestic law on
these issues (Tofan, Claudia and Willem 2013).

Thus, comes the liberal intergovernmentalism approach to further explain the
situation. Looking at the crisis in a low politic manner, both the EU and Turkey are now
acting in accordance of their own national interest and interstate bargaining. They are
desperate, and need to be quick in their actions as both countries are facing issues regarding
their credibility that may further worsen. For example, the EU has problems with Euro as
a common currency and the Brexit, while Turkey had their president, Erdogan involved in a
huge corruption mainly due to the leakage of an audio tape of his conversation with his son
(Cockburn 2014). Therefore, both of them start to disregard significant flaws that they own in
order to achieve their goals.

In a question of methodology, Comparative Politics approach advises that the current
agreement made by both sides is actually a good step in dealing with the crisis. The EU has
its substantive needs to maintain their borderless Europe identity and to uphold their integrity
in upholding the human rights. Meanwhile, Turkey has its own agenda on getting the visafree
travel within European countries and on fastening its path towards the EU’s membership.

These require both countries to accept both sides terms and conditions in order to realize their
goals (Humeyra and Baczynska 2016). In the EU council, Germany decides to compromise
with Turkey’s accession, though it is previously one of the major EU members that
opposes the decision. This crisis had called for a quick action by the EU, though the
agreement is yet to be agreed by many (Zihnioğlu and Özge 2013). On the other hand,
Turkey also wants to expand their economy as it had changed the Central and Eastern
European countries economy that join the EU on May 1, 2004. This is again, mainly in regard
towards the Syrian refugee crisis (Campos, Coricelli and Moretti 2014).

Finally, Normative perspective questions the culture and values that have to be
mutually accepted by both countries. Although Turkey is known to be a secular country, it is
still heavily populated by Muslim people (Religion 1995). European countries, though trust
that Islam and terrorism are two separate entities, they had faced a number of attacks that
may mislead them. For instance, the Charlie Hebdo tragedy which involves the cartoonists
that draw cartoons to make fun of the Prophet Muhammad, which is considered as a taboo in
Islam (Vinograd, Jamieson, Viala and Smith 2015).

In that, this also questions the freedom of speech that needs to be respected by
Turkey. Given the fact that the current president is strict in term of freedom of speech, the
accession might not be as simple as it ought to be. For example, Erdogan had arrested and
even killed people who oppose him or his party on November 3, 2015 (Hürriyet
2015). Erdogan also requires the police to arrest Kurdish protestors, in which most of them
are journalists and civilians that have long faced legal discrimination and violence in the
country. This had tested another principle of the EU that is mandatory to keep the right of the
minority (Calamur 2016). However, Turkey disregard Kurdish as a minority due to their great
numbers (Roy 2011). They keep abusing the Kurdish like launching an airstrike on
November 21, 2015, on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq in the name of fighting a
separatist group (Toksabay and Powell 2015).

Besides, most of the European citizens’ faith is of Christianity (Farley 2016). This is
proven when the EU council almost makes the religion official through the draft texts of the
European Constitution, and had it included in the proposals in the Treaty of Lisbon
(Humanist 2014) (Katznelson and Jones 2010: 361). However, it is opposed by the secularists
as it does not match the final Constitution on Europe’s Religious and Humanist inheritance.
These basically underlines the uncertain challenges that the EU had to face in regards to the
Syrian refugee crisis, and how Turkey accession should not be taken lightly by them
(Schrover, Marlou and Moloney 2010).


5.CONCLUSION 

In conclusion, the idea of borderless Europe is tested through the issue of Syrian
refugee. This has also revived the debate concerning the relationship between Turkey and the
EU that involves the democratic nature, economy stability, and cultures of them. The EU
theorizing is then used to further explicate the complex matter; namely, classical international
relations theories, comparative politics view, and normative Perspective.

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